Just 60 days in the past when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
